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Introduction to Klaviyo’s ‘Expected Date of Next Order Flow’
Klaviyo's predictive analytics does something different: it predicts each customer's own next order date from their actual purchase behaviour, and lets you message them right before it, not on a generic countdown.
This is what the Expected Date of Next Order (EDNO) model does, how to set it up, and where it fits alongside a standard replenishment flow.
What is Klaviyo's predictive analytics?
Klaviyo's predictive analytics uses a customer's own purchase history, browsing behaviour, and email engagement to forecast their future actions, most usefully when they're likely to buy again.
It's built into Klaviyo's profile and segmentation tools directly, so once a profile qualifies (see the activation requirements below), you can build flows and segments around real, per-customer predictions instead of one fixed assumption applied to your whole list.
What is the Expected Date of Next Order model?
The Expected Date of Next Order (EDNO) model is one of Klaviyo's predictive models. It analyses a customer's purchase history, on-site behaviour, and email engagement to predict the specific date they're next likely to order, so you can time a message to land just before it rather than guessing.
Klaviyo only shows predictive analytics on a profile once these conditions are met (as a scannable list, per the plan):
At least 500 customers have placed an order (this counts actual orders, not total profiles — if the section shows but is blank on a given profile, there isn't enough data on that individual yet)An ecommerce integration is connected (Shopify, BigCommerce, Magento, or the API sending placed-order events.) At least 180 days of order history, with orders in the last 30 daysAt least some customers with 3 or more orders
The table below defines the predictive analytics fields shown above. Note that, CLV stands for Customer Lifetime Value.
Expected Date of Next Order vs a standard replenishment flow
The distinction that matters, stated plainly:
A standard replenishment flow runs on a fixed interval you set yourself, usually based on how long a product typically lasts. Every customer who buys that product gets the same reminder on the same schedule, whether they actually use it at that rate or not.
EDNO doesn't use a fixed interval. It predicts a date per customer, from that customer's own behaviour, which means two people who bought the same product can get reminded at different points because their actual usage and reorder patterns differ.
Neither replaces the other. If your customers already know roughly how long a product category lasts, a standard replenishment flow covers that well on its own. EDNO is the next step on top of that foundation, most useful once you have Klaviyo's activation requirements met and want per-customer accuracy rather than a category-wide average.
How to set up the Expected Date of Next Order flow in Klaviyo
- Set up your data tracking. Make sure purchases, website behaviour, and email engagement are all being tracked, since the model draws on all three.
- Create your predictive model. Select the EDNO model in Klaviyo and configure it against the data points most relevant to your business.
- Set up your email campaigns. Once the model is live on qualifying profiles, build the flow trigger and messaging around the predicted date.
Klaviyo and Magnet Monster both recommend against counting down to the expected date in every message a repeat customer receives. Customers get the same sequence before every order, which tends to drive unsubscribes over time. Treat EDNO as a trigger point, not a running countdown.
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Replenishment email examples by business type
The Expected Date of Next Order Flow can be a powerful tool for email marketers, helping them to deliver more personalised and targeted messages to their audience. Here are some real-world examples of how businesses have used the EDNO model to improve their email marketing campaigns:
Example 1: E-commerce companies
E-commerce companies can use the EDNO model to predict when their customers are likely to make their next purchase and schedule their email campaigns accordingly.
For example, if a customer typically makes a purchase every three months, the company can send them a reminder email a few weeks before that expected date, offering a irresistible offer, or promoting new products, or added value incentives to upsell - all increasing AOV and customer satisfaction/lifespan. This can help to increase the chances of the customer making a repeat purchase and boost customer loyalty time and time again, having a major compounding impact on revenue.
Example 2: Subscription services
Subscription-based businesses can use the EDNO model to predict when their customers are likely to renew their subscriptions and send them targeted emails reminding them to renew. By sending these emails at the right time, companies can reduce churn rates and retain more customers over time. For some subscription based businesses this literally can be a golden ticket opportunity!
Example 3: Service-based businesses
Service-based businesses can use the EDNO model to predict when their customers are likely to need their services again and send them timely reminders. For example, a car repair shop could use the EDNO model to predict when a customer is likely to need their next oil change and send them a reminder email a few weeks before that expected date. This can help to increase customer retention and encourage repeat business & even referrals.
Example 4: Event-based businesses
Event-based businesses can use the EDNO model to predict when their customers are likely to attend their next event and send them targeted emails with event reminders and promotions. For example, a concert venue could use the EDNO model to predict when a customer is likely to attend their next concert and send them a personalised email with information about upcoming shows and ticket discounts.
Case Study - waterdrop®
We deploy an intelligent, specific usage of the predictive analytical EDNO in various formats under different conditions with different clients. Check out our recent case study with Waterdrop® USA where we are leveraging Klaviyo’s predictive analytics features, being able to stay top-of-mind for high frequency buyers and build in customer advocacy with gifting incentives.
Here, we are also tapping into Klaviyo's data science features, our goal with the ‘WINBACK FLOW | EXPECTED NEXT ORDER DATE | REPEAT PURCHASERS’ flow was to prevent churn and keep the customer disciplined on their hydration journey.
When not to use the EDNO flow
Whether you're an e-commerce company, a subscription service, a service-based business, or an event-based business, the EDNO model can help you improve customer retention and boost your bottom line. So if you're looking for a way to take your email marketing campaigns to the next level, consider using the Expected Date of Next Order Flow in Klaviyo.
For many brands you will have exceptionally good results, although there are some limitations. For instance you may want to be able to display the product details dynamically on replenishment flows, and you can't necessarily always do that. So for brands where the product visual and dynamic information is more important you may look at other ways to achieve your outcome than the standard EDNO flow setup.
Remember, every instance and every client is unique - the beauty of email marketing strategy is that there really isn’t a one-size fits all solution to all scenarios that you just rinse and repeat. It truly depends on what product/s or services your business or clients sell. EDNO can work alongside specific replenishment flows harmoniously and creatively.
We have also implemented the standard foundational setup with certain brands with some top selling SKUs on specific product replenishment flows, calculating replenishment time based on how long the product lasts, and then a generic replenishment prompt with expected date of next order. It simply comes down to taking the theory and adjusting it to meet your business needs.
You can add some filters to control the cadence of those flows, including, last order placed date - as you don't want to bombard customers with those reminders, to people who buy very frequently or have just received a product specific flow, as you might be unintentionally creating a less than fun customer experience. The point here is that you should always try to zoom out and look at the bigger picture of all that is going on.
FAQ
What is a replenishment flow?
An automated email (or SMS) sequence timed to a fixed interval you set yourself, usually based on how long a product category typically lasts, reminding customers to reorder before they run out.
What is Klaviyo flow?
An automated, multi-step sequence of emails and/or texts triggered by a specific customer action or condition, such as joining a list, abandoning a cart, or reaching a predicted reorder date, rather than sent as a one-off broadcast.
When does Klaviyo's predictive analytics activate on a profile?
Once your account has at least 500 customers who've placed an order, an ecommerce integration connected (or the API sending placed-order events), at least 180 days of order history with orders in the last 30 days, and some customers with 3 or more orders. If the section is present but blank on a profile, there isn't enough data on that individual yet.
How is the Expected Date of Next Order flow different from a standard replenishment flow?
A standard replenishment flow uses one fixed interval for every customer who buys a given product. EDNO predicts a date per customer from their own purchase and engagement history, so two customers with the same product can get reminded at different points based on their actual behaviour.
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